مقاله انگلیسی استراتژی های پوشش ریسک برای خرده فروشان برق با استفاده از بیمه و محدود کردن مشتقات آب و هوا

این مقاله علمی پژوهشی (ISI)  به زبان انگلیسی از نشریه الزویر مربوط به سال ۲۰۲۲ دارای ۱۱ صفحه انگلیسی با فرمت PDF می باشد در ادامه این صفحه لینک دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی و بخشی از ترجمه فارسی مقاله موجود می باشد.

کد محصول: M1218

سال نشر: ۲۰۲۲

نام ناشر (پایگاه داده): الزویر

نام مجله:   International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems

نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی (Research articles)

تعداد صفحه انگلیسی: ۱۱ صفحه PDF

عنوان کامل فارسی:

مقاله انگلیسی ۲۰۲۲ :  استراتژی های پوشش ریسک برای خرده فروشان برق با استفاده از بیمه و محدود کردن مشتقات آب و هوا

عنوان کامل انگلیسی:

Risk hedging strategies for electricity retailers using insurance and strangle weather derivatives

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Abstract

With the increase of extreme weather events and the penetration of distributed energy resources, electricity retailers will encounter more risks at both transmission and distribution levels during the business operation process. For risks at the transmission level, huge damages to the transmission lines and towers caused by extreme events, like bushfires, ice storms, and flooding, will lead to power shortage. For risks at the distribution level, demand variations in accordance with temperature change will result in energy procurement difficulty for the retailers. In this paper, besides the normal bilateral contract, the insurance, the strangle weather derivatives, and the energy storage system are implemented to hedge the risks at both the transmission and distribution levels. Simulation results show that the proposed model ensures higher profits for the retailers in summer and winter compared to the conventional model when there are no extreme events occurring. When there are extreme events in both summer and winter, the proposed model incurs lower reduction of profits than that of the conventional model. In brief, the overall profits of the retailer using the proposed hedging model are higher than the convention model, and the overall profit variation of the conventional model is about 26% higher than the proposed model. Furthermore, when the budget of the retailer is sufficient, all three hedging tools can be invested. Whereas when the budget of the retailer is limited, the investment order should be insurance the first, strangle weather derivatives the second, and energy storage system the third.

Keywords: Electricity markets, Adjusted risk valuation method, Strangle weather derivatives, Risk management, Energy storage system

۱.Introduction

 ۱.۱.Background and motivation

 With the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), greenhouse gas emission has been substantially reduced [1]. However, the incorporation of DERs will lead to a large-scale demand fluctuation. As a result, the imbalance of demand and supply might occur [2]. The risks of demand fluctuation caused by the penetration of DERs normally happen at the distribution level. Although this type of risk will not cause tremendous losses for the electricity retailer, it happens more frequently. Normally, to hedge this type of risk, retailers can firstly sign bilateral contracts with the generation companies (GENCOs) to stabilize the electricity prices and cover majority of the estimated demand [3]. Then, when overconsumption occurs, the retailer will compensate the demand gap from the spot market at the real-time electricity price [2]. Furthermore, the increase of extreme events (EEs) caused by climate change will further augment the demand–supply imbalance. EEs like bushfires and ice storms can lead to huge damages on power trans mission lines and towers, which will make the retailers unable to satisfy the demand requirements [2,4]. The risks caused by EEs normally occur at the transmission level. Although the occurrence of this type of risk is rare, the damages are tremendous. Studies on the risk hedging strategy of this type of risk from the perspective of the energy retailers are lacking. It can be found that energy retailers incur risks at both the transmission and distribution levels. Therefore, more appropriate risk hedging strategies should be developed for the retailers to hedge both types of risks. Additionally, the impact of DERs and EEs should be incorporated as well…

۱۰.Conclusion

 In this paper, besides the utilization of the bilateral contract and the energy storage system, two more tools have been proposed to hedge the risks of the retailers at both transmission and distribution levels. They are the insurance and the strangle weather derivatives. For risks at the transmission level, it might occur when there are extreme events, this type of risk causes huge damages to the transmission network, but the risks are of relatively low frequency. Thus, insurance based on the adjusted risk valuation method is used to hedge the power shortage risks. For risks at the distribution level, the retailers mainly deal with the problem of demand fluctuation caused by the distributed energy sources and climate change, which is much less severe but more frequent than the damages caused by extreme events. Hence, the strangle weather derivatives and the energy storage system is chosen to hedge this type of risk. Simulation results indicate that the proposed model ensures higher profits for the retailers in summer (about 6 million AU$ higher) and winter (about 9 million AU$ higher) compared to the ventional model when there are no extreme events occur. On average, the profits of the proposed model are higher than the conventional model…

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