مشارکت اقتصادی و قطع روابط اقتصادی بخشی از اقتصاد سیاسی و نگرانی های ژئوپلتیک هستند عدم مشارکت اخیر هند در مجمع جنوب آسیا برای همکاری منطقه ای همواره مخرب بوده است این امر منجر به جلب توجه کشورهای مهم آسیایی به سمت طرح خلیج بنگال برای همکاری های فنی و اقتصادی چند بخشه (BIMSTEC) برای تجارت جهانی و سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی (FDI) شده است در این پژوهش تلاش می شود تا به طور تجربی روابط بین متغیرهای FDI و تجارت جهانی در میان داده های پانلی را برای کشورهای BIMSTEC شناسایی کنیم. این تلاش به منظور جستجو برای یافتن روابط بیشتر است.

۱.مقدمه

یکپارچگی اقتصادی منطقه ای با آغاز تجارت بین المللی بین کشورها که معمولا به عنوان تجارت دو طرف شناخته می شود، آغاز می شود. اگرچه لازم به ذکر است که تجارت بین دو کشور دوجانبه نیست مگر اینکه هدف از پیش تعیین شده و آگاهانه بین دولت های کشورهای مربوطه وجود داشته باشد…….

Abstract

Economic engagement and disengagement are part and parcel of political economy and geopolitical concerns. The recent non-participation of India in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit has proved fatal. This has resulted in the shift of attention of the major Asian countries towards The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) region for world trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). The present study is an attempt to empirically identify the causality between variables of FDI and world trade across panel data for BIMSTEC countries. This is an attempt to search for further causality.

۱. Introduction

Regional economic integration starts with initial international trade between countries commonly known as bilateral trade. Though it is to be noted that trade between two countries is not bilateral unless there is pre-determined and conscious intention between the governments of the respective countries. As agreements between countries become more formal, it takes a particular nomenclature. The same is the story of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), as an association of South Asian nations. In 2016, the rivalry between India and Pakistan bolstered and eventually India backed off from attending the SAARC summit.

Afghanistan supported the move of India, others gave a diplomatic response. In the aftermath of such incident, there is an argument going both in academic circles and foreign affairs circles, that BIMSTEC must be given more importance as SAARC has collapsed. This particular notion has become popular and has also been seriously taken by the global friends of India or the opponents of Pakistan. The present study is an endeavour to understand Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and world trade in the BIMSTEC region due to its growing importance and utility. Causality analysis will be conducted on the basis of FDI and world trade. Section 2 deals with the review of literature in general as well as on specific issues related to FDI and international trade. Section 3 and Section 4 are focussed on the conceptual framework and econometric models and estimation methods. Section 5 discusses the sources of data. Results and conclusion are elucidated under Section 6 and Section 7.