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این مقاله علمی پژوهشی (ISI) به زبان انگلیسی از نشریه اسپرینگر مربوط به سال ۲۰۲۲ دارای ۳۴ صفحه انگلیسی با فرمت PDF می باشد در ادامه این صفحه لینک دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی و بخشی از ترجمه فارسی مقاله موجود می باشد.
کد محصول: h822
سال نشر: ۲۰۲۲
نام ناشر (پایگاه داده): اسپرینگر
نام مجله: Empirical Economics
نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی (Research articles)
تعداد صفحه انگلیسی: ۳۴ صفحه PDF
عنوان کامل فارسی:
مقاله انگلیسی ۲۰۲۲ :انتظارات تورمی و مخارج مصرف کننده: نقش ترازنامه خانوار
عنوان کامل انگلیسی:
Inflation expectations and consumer spending: the role of household balance sheets
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Abstract
Research interest in the reaction of consumption to expected inflation has increased in recent years due to efforts by central banks to kick-start demand by steering inflation expectations. We contribute to this literature by analysing whether various components of households’ balance sheets determine how consumption reacts to expected inflation. Two channels in particular are conceivable: an increase in inflation expectations can raise consumption through direct increases in expected real wealth, e.g. for households with nominal financial liabilities. By affecting the real interest rate, expected inflation can interact with wealth if only those households can adapt their consumption to current real interest rates that are not budget-constrained or sufficiently liquid to shift funds between consumption and savings. We investigate these channels empirically using household-level information on balance sheets, durable consumption and inflation expectations from the Dutch Central Bank’s Household Survey. We find that investments in risky assets as well as net worth moderates the relation between expected inflation and durable spending decisions. The net worth effect is most pronounced for households with fixed interest rate mortgages.
Keywords: Intertemporal household choice · Expectations · Consumption · Inflation · Macro-based behavioural economics.
۱.Introduction
Hypotheses on why inflation expectations can have an impact on consumption on the micro-level are based on two arguments. First, inflation expectations change the real interest rate and could therefore affect consumption through intertemporal substitution. Second, they affect expected real wealth and therefore consumption out of real wealth. In both cases the composition of a household’s balance sheet can alter the size and direction of the effect of inflation expectations on spending. Attempts to gauge this interaction in the literature have been incomplete. Several authors estimated the impact of inflation expectations on consumption. These studies have often exploited some sort of natural experiment such as the zero lower bound or value-added tax increases to identify a causal relationship using cross-sectional (Bachmann et al. 2015; Ichiue and Nishiguchi 2015; D’Acunto et al. 2016) or panel data (Burke and Ozdagli 2013; Crump et al. 2015; Duca et al. 2018) without reaching consensus on the sign or size of the effect. However, no analysis has properly accounted for the potential role of the balance sheet as a moderator of the effect of price expectations on spending. In this paper we investigate empirically whether different components of a household’s balance sheet interact with its inflation expectations in affecting realised consumer spending. To this end, we use panel data on household level balance sheets, inflation expectations and durable consumer spending from the Dutch Central Bank’s (DNB) Household Survey…
۷.Conclusion
In this paper we provide evidence of a balance sheet channel through which inflation expectations affect durable consumer spending. We use a household survey that contains uniquely detailed balance sheet information as well as a large range of other household characteristics including inflation expectations. We discuss different hypotheses why balance sheets could potentially mediate the spending response to expected inflation. Our results suggest a mediating role of the real wealth channel: the positive response of the probability to spend when inflation expectations increase is stronger for households with lower average net worth. This effect is stronger for households with fixed interest rate mortgages. We relate our findings to the growing literature on the consequences of heterogeneous agents for the transmission of monetary policy, in particular to Cloyne et al. (2020). They show that mortgage holders react particularly strongly to interest rate shocks in their spending choices. We show that a similar pattern is observable for changes in expected inflation…
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