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این مقاله علمی پژوهشی (ISI) به زبان انگلیسی از نشریه الزویر مربوط به سال ۲۰۲۱ دارای ۱۷ صفحه انگلیسی با فرمت PDF می باشد در ادامه این صفحه لینک دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی و بخشی از ترجمه فارسی مقاله موجود می باشد.
کد محصول: H730
سال نشر: ۲۰۲۱
نام ناشر (پایگاه داده): الزویر
نام مجله: Journal of Macroeconomics
نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی (Research articles)
تعداد صفحه انگلیسی: ۱۷ صفحه PDF
عنوان کامل فارسی:
مقاله انگلیسی ۲۰۲۱ : درماندگی مالی و تورم مالی
عنوان کامل انگلیسی:
Financial distress and fiscal inflation
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Abstract
Is inflation ‘always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon’ or is it fundamentally a fiscal phenomenon? The answer hinges crucially on the underlying monetary–fiscal policy regime. Scant attention has been directed to the role of credit market frictions in discerning the policy regime, despite its growing importance in empirical macroeconomics. We augment a standard monetary model to incorporate fiscal details and credit market imperfections. These ingredients allow for both interpretations of the inflation process in a financially constrained environment. We find that introducing financial frictions to the model and adding financial variables to the dataset generate important identifying restrictions on the observed pattern between inflation and measures of financial and fiscal stress, to the extent that it overturns existing findings about which monetary–fiscal policy regime produced the U.S. data. To confront policy regime uncertainty, we propose the use of dynamic prediction pools and find strong cyclical patterns in the estimated historical regime weights.
Keywords: Monetary and fiscal policy, Financial frictions, Model comparison, Dynamic prediction pool
۱.Introduction
In any dynamic model with nominal government debt, there are two regions of the policy parameter space in which monetary and fiscal policies jointly determine inflation and stabilize debt. One region produces active monetary and passive fiscal policy or regime M, yielding the conventional monetarist/Wicksellian paradigm of inflation determination. Regime M assigns monetary policy to control inflation by raising the nominal interest rate aggressively with inflation and fiscal policy to stabilize debt by adjusting taxes or spending. The second region consists of passive monetary and active fiscal policy or regime F, producing the fiscal theory of the price level (Leeper, 1991; Woodford, 1995; Cochrane, 1999; Davig and Leeper, 2006; Sims, 2013). Under regime F, policy roles are reversed, with monetary policy responding weakly to inflation and fiscal instruments adjusting weakly to government debt.1 Because these two policy regimes imply completely different mechanisms for price level determination and, therefore, starkly different policy advice, identifying the prevailing regime is a prerequisite to understanding the macroeconomy and to making good policy choices…
۵.Concluding remarks
This article studies monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a financially constrained environment. We estimate various versions of a standard medium-sized DSGE model augmented with fiscal details and credit market imperfections and find that adding financial frictions to the model and financial variables to the dataset plays an important role in improving the relative fit of regime F that embodies the fiscal theory. The improvement stems largely from regime F’s implications for the comovement patterns between credit spread and inflation, which find empirical support in the data. To confront policy regime uncertainty, we advocate the use of linear prediction pools that dynamically combine both policy regimes. Alternatively, further identifying restrictions from elsewhere is still necessary to break the near observational equivalence of the two policy regimes found in the present study.
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