این مقاله علمی پژوهشی (ISI) به زبان انگلیسی از نشریه الزویر مربوط به سال ۲۰۲۳ دارای ۲۶ صفحه انگلیسی با فرمت PDF می باشد در ادامه این صفحه لینک دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی و بخشی از ترجمه فارسی مقاله موجود می باشد.
کد محصول: H842
سال نشر: ۲۰۲۳
نام ناشر (پایگاه داده): الزویر
نام مجله: International Review of Economics and Finance
نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی (Research articles)
تعداد صفحه انگلیسی: ۲۶ صفحه PDF
عنوان کامل فارسی:
مقاله انگلیسی ۲۰۲۳ : چرا جغرافیای سیاسی شرکت ها برای بازده سهام اهمیت دارد؟
عنوان کامل انگلیسی:
Why corporate political geography matters for stock returns
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چکیده فارسی
محرک های عملکرد کارآمد ناشی از استراتژی های سرمایه گذاری که برای بهره برداری از نزدیکی جغرافیایی شرکت ها به قدرت سیاسی (PAI) طراحی شده امد ، کدامند؟ بازدهی پرتفوی آربیتراژ(سفته بازی) PAI سالانه بین ۳.۴٪ تا ۳.۹٪ از خالص هزینه های معاملات می باشد. مطابق با دیدگاه مبتنی بر عدم قطعیت سیاست ، اثر PAI بر بازده فقط در میان شرکتهایی که فاقد ارتباطات سیاسی هستند وجود دارد. بازده غیرعادی سهام شرکت های غیرفعال سیاسی در ایالت های با سطح بالای PAI منعکس کننده قیمت گذاری نادرست است که به نظر می رسد ناشی از شفافیت ناقص عدم قطعیت سیاست ناشی از سرریز خوش بینی سیاسی در قیمت گذاری سهام محلی و تمایل مدیران فرصت طلب به بهره برداری از عدم قطعیت می باشد.
Abstract
What are the drivers of the impressive performance derived from investment strategies designed to exploit firms’ geographic proximity to political power (PAI)? High-Low PAI arbitrage portfolios yield between 3.4% and 3.9% per year, net of transaction costs. Consistent with the view that it is grounded on policy uncertainty, the PAI effect on returns only exists among firms lacking political connections. Abnormal stock returns of politically inactive firms from high PAI states reflect mispricing that seems to arise from flawed policy uncertainty resolution caused by the spillover of political optimism in local stock pricing and opportunistic managers’ propensity to exploit uncertainty.
۱.Introduction
Politics and political uncertainty play an important role in financial markets. In a New York Times article (July 5, 1930), Will Rogers, an American humorous commentator and entertainer, expressed that “this country has come to feel the same when Congress is in session as when the baby gets hold of a hammer.” Yet, policy uncertainty emanating from Congress and other political bodies varies with the level of the state’s political alignment with the President’s party. From 2009 to 2014, Alexandria Real Estate Equities in California where local politicians are closely aligned with the Democratic party of President Obama outperformed the market by 3.6% per annum, while Comfort Systems USA, Inc in Texas where the political alignment is relatively weak underperform the market by 7.5% per annum…
۵.Conclusion
In this study, we provide three main results. First, we show that investment strategies based on refined measures of firms’ proximity to political power yield significant abnormal returns net of transactions costs. We provide a more precise estimate of the association of firms’ proximity to political power and stock returns by devising three firm-specific PAI measures that reflect a firm’s geographic dispersion. These measures account for corporate family locations from firms’ public filings in Exhibit 21 of the annual 10-K are essentially weighted averages of the PAIs from the states a firm’s affiliates are located. The link between political geography and future returns becomes much stronger when the PAI measure is refined to account for the multitude of firms’ economically relevant locations.
Second, we run a set of tests designed to understand whether this return predictability is associated with a geopolitical risk factor or explained by mispricing. Our results fail to show that PAI’s return predictability results from an underlying geopolitical risk factor. Instead, the story that emerges from our body of evidence is that the PAI effect entails exposure to uncertainty associated with high PAI areas of the political map, which afflicts firms lacking the protection of political connections. These politically-inactive firms are more likely to exhibit symptoms of mispricing, such as return reversals.
Third, we provide several pieces of evidence that are consistent with the view that the PAI effect is driven by mispricing. We assess market sentiment by investigating firms’ earnings announcements and managerial manipulation by the longevity of MBE earnings streaks and the intensity of repurchase activity. From these tests, the politically-inactive firms are found to be associated with a combination of optimistic sentiment and managerial manipulation that can promote a flawed uncertainty resolution mechanism and, thus, lead to mispricing…
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