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کد محصول: H728
سال نشر: ۲۰۲۱
نام ناشر (پایگاه داده): الزویر
نام مجله: Economics Letters
نوع مقاله: مقاله کوتاه (Short Communication)
تعداد صفحه انگلیسی: ۴ صفحه PDF
عنوان کامل فارسی:
مقاله انگلیسی ۲۰۲۱ : اثرات بلند مدت پاندمی ها بر تورم: آیا مدت زمان اثرات متفاوت خواهد بود؟
عنوان کامل انگلیسی:
The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?
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چکیده فارسی
ما دریافتیم که پاندمی های بزرگ گذشته منجر به کاهش چشمگیر تورم در اروپا شده است که بیش از یک دهه ادامه داشته اند. با این حال ، تأثیرات پاندمی COVID-19 بر تورم روند می تواند متفاوت باشد.
کلیدواژه ها: تورم پاندمی، پیش بینی های محلی
Abstract
We find that past major pandemics have led to a significant decline in trend inflation in Europe that lasts for more than a decade. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on trend inflation could, however, be different this time around.
Keywords: Pandemics Inflation, Local projections
۱.Introduction
How will inflation dynamics unfold following the COVID-19 pandemic? Answering this question is difficult, as pandemics are an omnibus of demand and supply shocks that drive inflation in opposite directions (Baqaee and Farhi, 2020). Moreover, the extent to which the pandemic affects (trend) inflation further depends on hysteresis effects, which leave permanent scars on the economy, and countries’ ability to adjust to the postpandemic economy. Although, recently, inflation has risen in some advanced economies, it is not clear yet whether the underlying trend in inflation has followed suit. The literature also provides little guidance, as it has focused mostly on the short-run economic effects of pandemics (e.g. Eichenbaum et al., 2020a,b; Brinca et al., 2020)—less is known about its potential long-run effects.
۴.Discussion and conclusion
n In this paper, we investigate the long-run effects of major pandemics on trend inflation in Europe. We use a historical dataset, covering the 1313–۲۰۱۸ period and 19 major pandemics, and local projection methods. We find that, following a pandemic, trend inflation falls significantly below its initial level for more than a decade. The more prolonged and severe are pandemics, the more pronounced and persistent are the associated negative effects on trend inflation…
While these results do not bode well for the foreseeable future, the response of trend inflation to the COVID-19 pandemic might be different this time around. First, both fiscal and monetary authorities have responded to the pandemic with unprecedented heft. Governments worldwide engaged in large-scale stimulus measures to prevent mass layoffs and bankruptcies, and avoid costly worker–firm separations, while monetary policy has been exceptionally accommodative to prevent a sharp tightening of credit conditions and liquidity shortages. These policies have likely alleviated the adverse economic effects of the pandemic, and can even lead to a rise in inflation if maintained beyond the health crisis. Second, the swift arrival of several vaccines for the COVID-19 virus allows for lockdown measures to be slowly wound down, which is likely to induce a rebound in economic activity as households unlock their savings and release pent-up demand (provided vaccines offer protection also against mutated versions)…
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