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این مقاله علمی پژوهشی (ISI) به زبان انگلیسی از نشریه الزویر مربوط به سال ۲۰۲۱ دارای ۱۳ صفحه انگلیسی با فرمت PDF می باشد در ادامه این صفحه لینک دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی موجود می باشد.
کد محصول: H726
سال نشر: ۲۰۲۱
نام ناشر (پایگاه داده): الزویر
نام مجله: North American Journal of Economics and Finance
نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی (Research articles)
تعداد صفحه انگلیسی: ۱۳ صفحه PDF
عنوان کامل فارسی:
مقاله انگلیسی ۲۰۲۱ : همگرایی جهانی نرخ تورم
عنوان کامل انگلیسی:
Global convergence of inflation rates
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Abstract
This research analyzes the convergence of the world’s inflation rates, spanning 98 countries during the 1970–۲۰۱۶ period. Compared to previous studies, this study’s contribution is its analysis of the convergence sequence of different countries from a nonlinear perspective and its examination of the factors influencing the convergence order. We find that most countries’ inflation rates tend to converge with one another, with the exceptions of Japan, Poland, Chile, Sweden, and Burundi. The results also show that the inflation levels of high-income countries converge faster to the mean value than those of low-income countries. We show that countries that have volatile inflation rates are more likely to converge earlier than other countries. The robust results of the econometric analysis show that countries with improving per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels and growing globalization levels are more prone to earlier convergence than countries with lower level per capita GDP values or lower globalization levels. The results demonstrate that most of the countries in the world conform to the law of one price, and the money illusion hypothesis is invalid in the long run.
Keywords: Inflation, Convergence, Law of one price, Nonlinear
۱.Introduction
This research focuses on the convergence and possible causes of global inflation rates. Compared to previous studies, this paper considers the convergence order of inflation in different countries and the factors that influence convergence from a nonlinear perspective1. Inflation affects the consumption level and import and export trade of a country to a certain extent, and it has an important impact on the social welfare of the entire region (Lee & Chang, 2008; Narayan & Smyth, 2009; Narayan & Popp, 2011; Ehigiamusoe, Lean, & Lee, 2019). Although the existing studies have focused on the issues of inflation convergence, the innovation of this paper lies in the analysis of the rate of inflation convergence in different countries and the impact degree of different factors on the rate of convergence.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the worldwide inflation rate amounted to approximately 1.6% in 2016. Inflation takes different characteristics in different countries. For example, in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), inflation shows enormous heterogeneity, from near-zero inflation in Armenia to double-digit price increases in Azerbaijan and Ukraine. In the Russian Federation, food prices fell as a result of good harvests and the resumption of imports from Turkey, bringing inflation to an alltime low2. It is clear that over the past four decades, the aggregate inflation in developed countries has changed from high inflation and high volatility in the 1970s to low and relatively stable inflation in recent times. If these changes are related to globalization or the process of global economic integration, then domestic inflation must have had an impact on other countries’ inflation development at one or more points in time, making exchange rates more consistent with one another (Altansukh, Becker, Bratsiotis, & Osborn, 2017; Lee, Lee, & Lien, 2020). Bernanke (2004) believes that the monetary policy has played an important role in reducing the volatility of inflation. However, inflation varies widely around the world; for example, Venezuela’s inflation rate was 652.67% in 2017, while Congo’s inflation rate was ۰.۴۴۸%. Although there are great differences in the inflation levels in various countries worldwide, regardless of whether there is convergence in the long term, regional convergence and influencing factors can be studied to understand the long-term dynamic change of inflation…
۵.Conclusions
This paper analyzes the convergence of global inflation rates in 98 of the world’s countries during the 1970–۲۰۱۶ period. Compared to previous studies, the contributions of this work include showing the existence of inflation convergence, the order of convergence in different countries and the factors influencing convergence from a nonlinear perspective. We find that most countries’ inflation rates tend to converge with each other, with the exception of Japan, Poland, Chile, Sweden and Burundi. The results also show that the inflation levels of high-income countries (including the upper-middle income level) converge faster than those of low-income countries (including the lower-middle income level) to the mean value. We also classify low-inflation countries and high-inflation countries by the average inflation rates from 1971 to 2016. We find that countries with volatile inflation rates (usually high-inflation countries) are more likely to converge earlier than other countries. The robust results of the econometric analysis show that countries with improved per capita GDP and globalization levels are more prone to earlier convergence than those with lower levels of per capita GDP or globalization. This means that with the development of globalization, the macroeconomic development of all countries around the world presents a consistent trend, and we find that most of the countries around the world conform to the law of one price. Additionally, our research proves that the currency illusion hypothesis is invalid in the long run because inflation and purchasing power levels tend to converge in different countries. The research focuses on testing the existence of convergence and the factors affecting the convergence rate. Our research verifies the convergence feature of the inflation rate at the mean level. Of course, there may be convergence around other target values (with or without trend) or club convergence characteristics, which are issues to be further discussed in the future….
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