مقاله انگلیسی عدم تقارن در انتقال شوک های قیمت نفت به تورم در منطقه یورو

این مقاله علمی پژوهشی (ISI)  به زبان انگلیسی از نشریه الزویر مربوط به سال ۲۰۲۱ دارای ۳۱ صفحه انگلیسی با فرمت PDF می باشد در ادامه این صفحه لینک دانلود رایگان مقاله انگلیسی و بخشی از ترجمه فارسی مقاله موجود می باشد.

کد محصول: H729

سال نشر: ۲۰۲۱

نام ناشر (پایگاه داده): الزویر

نام مجله:   Economic Modelling

نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی (Research articles)

تعداد صفحه انگلیسی: ۳۱ صفحه PDF

عنوان کامل فارسی:

مقاله انگلیسی ۲۰۲۱ :  عدم تقارن در انتقال شوک های قیمت نفت به تورم در منطقه یورو

عنوان کامل انگلیسی:

Asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks to inflation in the Eurozone

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Abstract

Theory predicts that the level of inflation in an economy and the trend in the prevailing inflation rate may affect how oil price shocks, through their influence on firms’ expectations and price-setting behaviors, are transmitted to inflation. However, empirical evidence regarding this relationship is limited and calls for further exploration. Using data for 12 eurozone countries over the period from 1999 to 2020, we analyze how the inflation environment in which an oil price shock occurs influences its transmission. We find that the inflation environment is a determinant in the way oil supply shocks and oil-specific demand shocks are transmitted to inflation, with positive shocks displaying higher transmission in high inflation environments. Furthermore, transmission of shocks to core inflation, which represents an indirect effect, only occurs in high inflation environments. These findings highlight the need to consider the inflation environment in order to define appropriate monetary policies in response to inflationary pressures caused by oil price shocks.

Keywords: oil price shocks; inflation; state-dependent; asymmetry

۱.Introduction

 The price of oil as well as fluctuations in that price can significantly affect the evolution of a number of macroeconomic variables. The oil price shocks of the 1970s are a clear example of this (Hamilton, 1983; Mork, 1989; Hamilton, 1996); after those events, controlling inflation became a principal economic policy objective, particularly for monetary policy, and oil prices became a fundamental factor in analyzing economic conditions. Currently, most central banks have long-term inflation targets based on a core inflation measure that excludes an energy component. However, medium-term inflation targets are conditioned by the transmission of oil prices to consumer prices…

۵.Discussion of the results

 The results presented in this study show that when analyzing the effect of oil price shocks on inflation, it is essential to consider both the inflationary environment in which they occur and the sign of the shocks, as the consequences of the shocks differ depending on these factors.

When we analyze oil price shocks originating from the oil market itself, that is, oil supply and oil-specific demand shocks, the results are in line with theoretical predictions. In high inflation environments, positive shocks, that is, those that increase the price of oil, are transmitted to inflation to a greater extent than negative shocks, producing indirect effects reflected in an increase in core inflation. This relationship is consistent with the theoretical model in Taylor (2000), which argues that in an environment of higher inflation, firms have expectations of higher future inflation and greater persistence of oil price shocks and, thus, transmit these higher costs to their prices to a greater degree. Furthermore, our results show that the degree of transmission of negative price shocks is greater in low inflation environments, while in high inflation environments, that transmission is very low. This is in line with the theoretical prediction in Ball and Mankiw (1994) who show that the frequency of price increases because changes in costs grows with higher trend inflation, while the frequency of price reductions decline, leading to greater asymmetry. These results with respect to the frequency of price changes have been empirically supported at the microeconomic level for Mexico (Gagnon, 2009), Argentina (Alvarez et al., 2019), the eurozone, and the US (Dhyne et al., 2006)…

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