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کد محصول: H335
سال نشر: ۲۰۱۸
نام ناشر (پایگاه داده): الزویر
نام مجله: Economic Analysis and Policy
نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی (Research articles)
تعداد صفحه انگلیسی: ۸ صفحه PDF
تعداد صفحه ترجمه فارسی: ۱۳ صفحه word
قیمت فایل ترجمه شده: ۱۷۰۰۰ تومان
مقاله ترجمه شده : نوسانات نرخ ارز و عملکرد تجارت بین المللی: شواهدی از ۱۲ کشور آفریقایی
Exchange-rate volatility and international trade performance: Evidence from 12 African countries
در این مقاله، نمونه ای از دوازده کشور آفریقایی را برای بررسی تاثیر نوسانات واقعی نرخ ارز در مبادلات تجاری آنها مورد مطالعه قرار می دهیم. به منظور تشخیص تاثیرات متفاوت نوسانات نرخ ارز واقعی بر صادرات و واردات آنها، در کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت، ما از رویکرد آزمون کرانه ها استفاده می کنیم. ما متوجه می شویم که در حالی که نوسانات نرخ ارز در کوتاه مدت به مبادلات تجاری بسیاری از کشورها در نمونه ما تاثیر می گذارد، اثرات بلند مدت تنها بر صادرات پنج کشور و واردات تنها یک کشور تاثیرگذار می باشد سطح فعالیت های اقتصادی در جهان و در داخل کشور به ترتیب به عنوان عامل تعیین کننده اصلی صادرات و واردات شناخته شده است.
In this paper, we study a sample of twelve African countries to examine the impact of the real exchange-rate volatility on their trade flows. In order to distinguish the distinct impact of the real exchange-rate volatility on their exports and imports, both in the short-run and long-run, we use the bounds-testing approach. We find that while exchange rate volatility affects trade flows of many of the countries in our sample in the short run, the long-run effects were restricted only on the exports of five countries and on the imports of only one country. The level of economic activity in the world and at home were identified to be major determinants of exports and imports, respectively.
The effect of real exchange-rate volatility on trade flows has become a major source of concern for policymakers and academics alike since the fall of the Breton Woods agreement in 1973. The degree of such concern is more pronounced, especially in countries with relatively low levels of financial development.2 In the case of African countries that in recent years have shown a glimmer of hope in their growth strategies to transform their economies into a sustainable development, the instability of exchange-rate problem could grow into a more ominous issue for their quest of achieving that objective. Taking into consideration that the primary source of growth in most African countries has been the sharp rise in the volume of international trade, steered largely by the surging demand for raw materials and higher commodity prices, studying the significance of the relationship between economic performance and exchange-rate volatility is very timely and important for these countries. It is also noteworthy to realize as these countries embark on achieving a steady economic growth, they would more than likely engage in the liberalization of capital flows and cross-border financial transactions, hence, confronting increased exchange-rate movements.
On the other hand, the instability of exchange-rate may instigate uncertainty among profit-maximizing traders and curtail the level of their engagement in the export and import sectors, thus leading to a diminished volume of trade and weakened economic growth. While such anticipation is a case for concern, the theoretic literature on the exchange-rate volatility and its effect on trade flows suggests the existence of either a positive or negative outcome. If the uncertainty that is caused by the increased exchange-rate fluctuation induces traders to augment their trade volume in order to offset any anticipated decrease in future revenue, international trade may actually rise. Thus, the two effects of increased exchange-rate volatility on international trade flows can only be established by empirical scrutiny.
In this paper, we investigate these effects of increased exchange-rate volatility on international export and import flows using time series data from twelve African countries for which data are available spanning the early years of 1970s to the present period of 2014 or 2015 for most of these countries. The debate about the exchange-rate instability and how it affects international trade has overlooked the case of African countries thus far. The reason for such omission may have been due to the lack of data, especially their real effective exchange rates that are used to measure volatility. In this study, we use the real effective exchange-rate that we have constructed to expand on some sparsely existing data for these African countries to address the problem. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. First, in Section 2 we present a brief overview of the theoretical and empirical literature which is followed by the models and the methodology in Section 3. We then report the results in Section 4 and provide a summary and conclusion in Section 5. Finally, the definition of variables and data sources are provided in the Appendix.